This topic is lockedYour second paragraph pushes my point?
Does anyone actually have any evidence that the wages in this country, including all the garbon Terry belted on about, have an overly huge affect on INDIVIDUAL CARS PRODUCED?
I think it doesnt.
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#77
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Posted 08 December 2013 - 09:00 PM
Your second paragraph pushes my point?
Does anyone actually have any evidence that the wages in this country, including all the garbon Terry belted on about, have an overly huge affect on INDIVIDUAL CARS PRODUCED?
I think it doesnt.
Higher business costs means higher prices. Whether or not a business will pass on all savings due to sourcing cheaper labour and or parts is an entirely different matter.
#78
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Posted 08 December 2013 - 09:04 PM
Bingo, we know higher prices are a factor, but what factor are they?
Are they .00000005%?
Are they .5%?
Are they 5%?
Are they 50%?
Makes a frOcking big difference.....
Cheers.
#79
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Posted 08 December 2013 - 09:17 PM
Your second paragraph pushes my point?
Does anyone actually have any evidence that the wages in this country, including all the garbon Terry belted on about, have an overly huge affect on INDIVIDUAL CARS PRODUCED?
I think it doesnt.
Simple arithmetic says that it does.
Say Holden directly employs a total of 8,000 workers & the average wage is $75,000 (gross) that is an annual wages bill of $600M. If they build 100,000 cars that is $6000 per car. Remember this is wages only. Now let's move the factory to Thailand, employ the same number of workers & pay them very high wages by local standards, let's say $20,000 per year (it is actually much lower than that, but say) that makes the annual labour bill now $160M which equates to $1,600 per car, that's a saving of $4,400 & that's labour only.
Thailand has no carbon tax & even the Greenies admit to it costing around $450 per car. The local Governments over there might even entice local manufacturing by giving them some concessions on council rates & all the other miscellaneous fees, levies & licenses that the various levels of Govt. in Australia 'invent' every time they overspent & run out of cash. To say that the savings can add up to many $1,000s per car is not exaggerating.
These figures are only guesstimates, but labour is the biggest single overhead in most businesses, especially in manufacturing, whatever the numbers are.
Dr Terry
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Posted 08 December 2013 - 09:22 PM
Bingo, we know higher prices are a factor, but what factor are they?
Are they .00000005%?
Are they .5%?
Are they 5%?
Are they 50%?
Makes a frOcking big difference.....
Cheers.
That's the unknown factor eh DJ.
I'll hazard a guess to say that an employee's superannuation, entitlements and benefits in this country add an average of around 30% to the cost of employing the average worker.
So if you get paid 50k a year it is probably costing your employer around 65k a year to employ you.
Bear in mind that doesn't include any administrative costs associated with your employment or your employer actually making a profit on your employment.
Edited by S pack, 08 December 2013 - 09:26 PM.
#81
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Posted 08 December 2013 - 09:25 PM
I wouldn't bother arguing about this to be honest, it's going to take alot to change the outcome and I don't think we can do much about it.
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Posted 08 December 2013 - 09:37 PM
Simple arithmetic says that it does.
Say Holden directly employs a total of 8,000 workers & the average wage is $75,000 (gross) that is an annual wages bill of $600M. If they build 100,000 cars that is $6000 per car. Remember this is wages only. Now let's move the factory to Thailand, employ the same number of workers & pay them very high wages by local standards, let's say $20,000 per year (it is actually much lower than that, but say) that makes the annual labour bill now $160M which equates to $1,600 per car, that's a saving of $4,400 & that's labour only.
Thailand has no carbon tax & even the Greenies admit to it costing around $450 per car. The local Governments over there might even entice local manufacturing by giving them some concessions on council rates & all the other miscellaneous fees, levies & licenses that the various levels of Govt. in Australia 'invent' every time they overspent & run out of cash. To say that the savings can add up to many $1,000s per car is not exaggerating.
These figures are only guesstimates, but labour is the biggest single overhead in most businesses, especially in manufacturing, whatever the numbers are.
Dr Terry
You say most companeis, from what i gather Holden is mostly robotized? Also from waht i gather the average wage is far below 75k a year, if you dont count the CEO's.....
I fully agree, and have never disagreed, with your comments on the carbon tax and other factors making it an unlevel playing feild. Were going uphill the opposition is looking downhill upon us.
That aside, your saying that for 3k a car more, once all the shit is scrapped, we can build a far better product?
Sorry mate but i have yet to see the far better product? Regardless of the pricerange?
Comes back to the CEO's, they need to make the decisions to save the company. I'll say it again, i dont think wages are that big a deal.
That's the unknown factor eh DJ.
I'll hazard a guess to say that an employee's superannuation, entitlements and benefits in this country add an average of around 30% to the cost of employing the average worker.
So if you get paid 50k a year it is probably costing your employer around 65k a year to employ you.
Bear in mind that doesn't include any administrative costs associated with your employment or your employer actually making a profit on your employment.
I know all this. IM in a position to know, but unlike others i dont belt on about my ranks in a company.
Cheers.
#83
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Posted 09 December 2013 - 03:31 AM
Dr Terry its the protectionism since the 60's that has lead to many of the underlying issues today. Protectionism for decades has hidden our non competitive car manufacturing businesses. The 3 companies Holden, Fraud and Toyota have been given 4 billion by the government over the last 12yrs and yet still they are in the red and closing their doors.
At some stage you have to stop the madness and the continual bleeding out of taxpayers pockets just to prop up non competitive and very dubious commercial businesses. The reality is that there are billions going down the drain which have a zero or negative return to the economy. Its false economy to prop up these commercial busineses because its been going on for decades and still the management of those companies has nothing positive to look forward to in the future.
Look at the mess that the USA is created by all its printing of money and throwing money at poorly run manufacturers. Its false economy because at the end of the day you have to balance your cheque book. You simply can't forever be writing cheques and have your account in the red. The GFC might have shaken a few apples from the tree but its nothing compared to what is going to happen in the future to the USA when it is forced to face reality and somehow balance the books. I laughed when in the USA the big 3 wanted bailout money and the head hocho's where told to go to Washington to barter their case. Their chosen mode of transport of course where private jets, something that showed the reality of their management ability.
My motto in business has always been if you live by the sword you die by the sword - its swim by yourself and adapt or drown. Master of their own destiny.
Some of my favourite quotes from the abc podcast on the Australian Car Industry.
Henry Ergas: What they've tried to do, and this goes back to the thinking that was in the Lynch plan in 1979, this was the delusion that we could export our way out of being an uncompetitive manufacturer. The whole point of being uncompetitive is that you're not competitive, and so the notion that you can export your way out of this is quite fanciful.
But from then on this was the great white hope of the industry.
As the industry got into trouble, what really happened was that it constantly downsized. The firms constantly threatened to shut down completely. Because those threats were credible, as they were losing money and were hence a burden on their global parents, as those threats were credible, governments caved in and tossed subsidies at them. So even though we kept reducing the tariff, which was the sensible thing to do, we were at the same time building up non-tariff assistance to this industry. And of course with Mitsubishi threatening to close and then ultimately of course closing in 2003, the Howard government provided some assistance to Mitsubishi. That assistance was then continued on a small scale to Ford in 2006, and then with the election of the Rudd government the assistance provided has multiplied times over. So we're providing more and more assistance to a shrinking base of activity for absolutely no return, I believe, to the community.
the story of Australia's car industry, an industry always protected from competition and supported by government subsidy. In just the last 12 years, Australia's three remaining car makers—Ford, Holden and Toyota—have been given over $4 billion by state and federal governments. Yet it still seems to be an industry on life support.
Sinclair Davidson: If there is to be a vision in the Australian motorcar industry, it should be the industry itself with their vision making cars that people want to buy.
John Perkins: We haven't really created a mass market for any model, although the number of models has been reduced, there's not really a mass market because the economies of scale have gone up and up. There is a global excess of production through the fact that China and India are now major producers of motor vehicles. We haven't got an Australian brand, we never had one really that we could sell, like the two letters RR for Rolls-Royce, or Land Rover, Jaguar or suchlike noted brands, we never got near that. We had models which were noted, if you like, like the old FJ, but not really a brand.
John Button : There are various elements in the plan which say, look, you've got to become more competitive and efficient in the process of adjustment over seven years. And one of the problems is that you've been manufacturing too many models in a small market, and that means low-volume runs. Volume is the problem of this industry.
#84
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Posted 09 December 2013 - 03:51 AM
Nicholas Gruen: That's right, we're not America, we were…I don't know how many people lived in the country then but 14 million, 15 million, something like that, and that gave us good economies of scale for Holden, and in fact in large rear wheel drive cars we were okay really until the end of the '70s. But it certainly accelerated the demise of the industry that we brought in all of these other players and it was a case of the more the merrier.
Bomber WatsonDoes anyone actually have any evidence that the wages in this country, including all the garbon Terry belted on about, have an overly huge affect on INDIVIDUAL CARS PRODUCED?
Bomber this quote may help.
Henry Ergas:Look, there's a basic underlying fact here which is this; if you take Australian manufacturing, our real labour costs per unit of output have increased since about 1990 in the order of 2% a year. That may not seem like a huge amount, but what you have to bear in mind is that in Germany, in Japan, in Sweden, real unit labour costs per unit of output have been decreasing. So when you compare our plus 2%, 2.5%, year in, year out increase, to a -1.5%, -2%, that is a decrease of 1.5%, 2%, and you compound that over a 23-year period, you're getting a very large difference. And the only way you could sustain such a large difference was if you had an enormous quality lead, and we don't.
#85
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Posted 09 December 2013 - 03:53 AM
The government here doesn't want to face reality..the sheep voting for them don't want to hear that. But sooner or later obviously things are going to come to a head and fall apart (worse so than already even) they just keep giving the money away with no regard for anything it seems. Again...the entitlement feeling they seem to push is going to make things messy when it all collaspes in on itself. The people making the rules are so far removed from...everything really, how to really run a "company" or how day to day people need to act and spend, it is just out of hand unfortunately. Politicians are bred to be just that...not like they were 'ment' to be originally..just average business men, etc that came up to run things for a short time then go back to what they did. So it is hard to expect them to run a country in a way an owner of business would run his own company any more.
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Posted 09 December 2013 - 04:44 AM
Government's just can't keep kidding taxpayers that everything is under control when they are handing out billions (trillions) that they simply don't have to businesses that may or may not have any future let alone a profitable one. The amounts of money we are talking about in the USA is just staggering and the resulting damage will make the Subprime, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac problems look like it was a child playing with monopoly money.
It is seriously troubling not just for the USA but for the rest world if this is allowed to suddenly explode. I am preying for a wind-back on this printing of money asap because it is putting the usa way out of whack with reality. At some stage this hidden pain is going to surface and its not going to be pretty and one of the saddest parts will be the very high increase in the unemployment %.
What you find is politicians are gutless and will not make the hard calls due to the risk of alienating future voters support. Its all about today for most, and 99.99% have no vision and no touch on reality.
I know some disagree but I don't think government's should ever be involved with bailing out a failing commercial business. Its part of evolution, only the strongest best managed businesses should remain in business. Its good to clear the tree of some bad apples every now and again.
Edited by LXSS350, 09 December 2013 - 04:52 AM.
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Posted 09 December 2013 - 05:32 AM
I agree....let the companies who strive and stay ahead survive...if we have to lose some big name companies to thin the heard, well...it might be time. Sad to see some of them go of course, but we can't hold the hands of everyone and expect to grow.. (goes for here or there) as a country. The unlimited money printing machine is only going to cut it so long..
#88
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Posted 09 December 2013 - 09:29 PM
Government has no intention to help out any business whether it be Holden, Qantas or any other icon.
Will let them all sink..............sad.
Who will get to turn out the lights?
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Posted 09 December 2013 - 09:37 PM
Government has no intention to help out any business whether it be Holden, Qantas or any other icon.
Will let them all sink..............sad.
Qantas is the last company deserving of any government assistance. I worked for them for three years after they were privatised and was so disappointed/disgusted in the culture of the organisation, I went to Emirates when they were fledgling (19 aircraft in the fleet) and have never looked back.
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Posted 10 December 2013 - 12:29 AM
Government has no intention to help out any business whether it be Holden, Qantas or any other icon.
Will let them all sink..............sad.
Who will get to turn out the lights?
Its more than sad it changes the country. But the blame is at the feet of management because even companies like BMW and Mercedes sales worldwide are increasing. Although if you look at the sales numbers its clear whales are not being sold and they are living off the small cars. It would be foolish if in 2013 they based their business on their whales. The bimmers 3 series is up nearly 22% in this worldwide down market. The bigger 5 series is only 2% up so you can very clearly see where you should concentrate your development money.
The old joke about what is Australia known for - "putting the country in a dump truck and sending it os to buy it back as a finished product". Even the mining companies are getting more and more controlled by os entities. We will all be the tourists soon. Dick Smith has it right the joke is on us.
Top 10 Best-selling Vehicles – 2013 to date
- Toyota Corolla – 39,794
- Mazda 3 – 38,060
- Toyota HiLux –36,457
- Hyundai i30 – 28,035
- Holden Commodore – 25,218
- Holden Cruze – 22,959
- Nissan Navara – 22,177
- Mitsubishi Triton – 21,491
- Toyota Camry – 21,326
- Ford Ranger – 20,111
A total of 804,248 BMW brand vehicles (prev. yr. 747,089) have been delivered to customers worldwide since the start of the year – an increase of +7.7%.
Cars
The BMW 3 Series in the first half year had 236,215 units sold, an increase of 21.8% over the same period last year (prev. yr. 193,996).
The BMW 5 Series with 169,593 units sold in the first half of the year (prev. yr. 166,097/ +2.1%).
The BMW 6 Series had an excellent first six months with sales climbing 35.4% to 14,012 units (prev. yr. 10,345).
4x4's
The BMW X1 with a total of 79,061 sold, an increase of 22.8% compared to last year (prev. yr. 64,387).
The BMW X3 sales of 77,959 vehicles in the first half year (prev. yr. 74,099/ +5.2%).
#91
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Posted 10 December 2013 - 07:23 AM
Australia has changed as well, most people live in the big cities, where small cars are more suitable. They also have two or three children, and they may have up to four cars at that one house. But in most cases, only one car in that family will be a large car, (a Commodore or Falcon or a 4x4 of some discription) because you will always need a large heavy car if you need to tow a Boat, Caravan, Horse Float ect... As i've said before, I think Holden missed the boat buy not making vehicle's that were needed in this Country. The Commodore is a great car, but Holden also needed to make vehicles for the Resources Boom we were always going to have.. (all we do here is dig holes & sell our resources away) Vehicles like, Large & Small 4x4 Wagons & Ute's, a Courier Van maybe. (look how many Hyundai Vans are on the roads since their release). GM & Holden Management have led themselves down this road.. As far as i'm concerned, Holden only make one car in their fleet, and thats the Commodore, every thing else is a GM product from some other Country. Now I love Holden's, but i'm not that keen on any of their smaller cars. Holden need to make their own Small & Medium sized cars, as they are the cars that are dominating sales in every Country around the World, and they need to be able to export in larger numbers as well. Holden have always made great cars, cars that would sell in every Country around the World, sure we can't make them cheaper than most other Countries producing cars, but we can make cars that people would buy regardless of the price as the Germans & Italians do. GMH may be dead in this Country, but i would hope Holden in some shape could remain and have a future. But I doubt it :(
#92
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Posted 10 December 2013 - 08:01 AM
we are the same up here in maryborough qld.the largest employer is downer edi who do the trains for qr and perth and wanker government just gave a multi-billion contract to off-shore like the gold-coast trams.i aqree we can,t compete with rice eating countries but surely thousands of people earning money and paying tax is better than them paying us the dole in the long term.the whole lot of pollies are traitors to this once great country but we all sit back and let them get away with it,look at all the countries where people riot and overthrow the pollies.now i am depressed so time to get the torry out and give it some,
#93
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Posted 10 December 2013 - 08:25 AM
These figures are interesting, the Cruze, which is not a bad little car, sells around 50% of Corolla, same price size etc. So to say Holden is selling whales is not truely correct. The number 3 seller is a Toyota Hilux, yes that is a small car.
I can understand why Holden have kept the Commodore the size it is, the last time Holden put its money on smaller was the VB Commodore and droped the Kingswood. Falcon became the best seller and Holden struggled for many years. The recovery started with the VN. It might be prudent for some to read the VN Story and how/why they made the Commodore larger. There are a lot of people still in GM from these periods when smaller seemed to be the right descision.
Maybe the VE is too big, or just looks too big. But number 5 seller should not be putting it out of production. Maybe the next shape Commodore needs to be VT size. (which is very much like the old Kingswood size).
Should we help fund the next design? Should we subsidies any industry?
I cannot comment on this as I worked for NSW rail when we lost $1M a day, back in the 80s. We could have run at a profit, just simple maths. We made money on frieght, peak hour broke even, but no frieght ran during peak hour, and we lost on off peak. The solution was simple, drop all passenger service, shut ever train station and workshop to do with passenger trains and run frieght 24/7. Too bad about the social cost of running no trains in Sydney, everyone needing to drive and the cost on the roads could easily be recouped with higher rego charges. But the railways would have saved the taxpayers money.
Warren
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Posted 10 December 2013 - 10:33 AM
A few comments on those sales figures.
1. Commodore sales do not includes VF utes, Caprices or any HSV. If they did, Commodore would be higher up the list, probably in 1st place..
2. In the first half of this year VE was in run out & slipped down the best seller list. If you count sales since July (when the VF was released) Commodore has been consistently 2nd or 3rd.
3. The BMW 3-series are made mostly in South Africa. South Africa & Germany (BMW's home) are both heavily tariff protected. Why can't that be reciprocal.
Dr Terry
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Posted 10 December 2013 - 10:51 AM
If Holden go under, Chevy will send the Corvette here like Ford are sending the Mustang, Bathurst will be Different for sure in the Future
#96
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Posted 10 December 2013 - 12:51 PM
Not everyones buying small cars. 4 in the top 10 are 4x4s. Holdens not building what the market wants. The VE and VFs are too big.
#97
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Posted 10 December 2013 - 02:34 PM
My BMW vehicle comparison of what the market clearly wants and is increasingly buying has nothing to do with tariffs, subsidy's or where they are made. On an apples to apple comparison as seen with BMW or MERCEDES or anyone else the small cars are their mainstay and increasing
The market wants physically small cars and basing your mainstay income earner to get the volumes - you must be suicidal to base it (as Dr Terry says) on a competitor to the 7 series sized car.
People WANT A WHALE THEY BUY A 4X4.
One drive down to any Westfield car park since mid 2000 will tell you that, without you being the MD of Holden or involved in the Auto industry.
As every commentator, expert has said the issue with Holden is VOLUME, having spent substantial development and manufacturing money to develop a car that since 2005 been decreasing and selling in far less volume has made the whole operation a loss maker.
HOLDEN IGNORED THE LOCAL & WORLD MARKET NEEDS.
For whale sized vehicle manufacturing as seen with BMW - a 4x4 is clearly what the market wants.
Holden knew very well that it had seen the dunny drop from 85-90 thousand to 30,000.
GM themselves new this was a niche size which is why it suited as a base for their very niche Camaro.
Now if the worldwide export market wanted any big whale lets face it regardless of the dollar at 90c dunnys would sell cheaper than much of the small worldwide BMW's 3 series, yet not in 2 million years would a dunny achieve such volumes
Although the dunnys obviously improved after the slapped together plastic years I just don't see the dunny as a world car or desirable to the world market in any dept.
The crux of the matter is that Holden still had the VB dunny backlash mentality where the public had a showroom avoidance to the axing of the big HZ to adopt the smaller german Opel (dunny). As Holden have said Australians want a big family sedan for towing and country driving - well at least in the 80's and 90's just not 2013.
Proof for manufacturing is always clearly seen in the numbers.
The updates to the BMW 3 Series Touring models are effective from July 2013 production and from August 2013 for the BMW 3 Series Sedan range.
BMW 3 Series
BMW 316i Sedan from $52,300
Joel Helmes is the editor of the Behind the Wheel radio program, heard on more than 150 stations around Australia
BMW 318d Sedan from $57,800
BMW 320i Sedan from $60,000
BMW 320d Sedan from $62,300
BMW 328i Sedan from $68,900
BMW 335i Sedan from $93,400
BMW ActiveHybrid 3 from $99,700
BMW 318d Touring from $60,300
BMW 320i Touring from $64,000
BMW 328i Touring from $72,900
2014 Holden VF Commodore and WN Caprice range:
Evoke 3.0-litre V6 four-door sedan: $34,990 (automatic)
SV6 3.6-litre V6 four-door sedan: $35,990 (manual), $38,190 (automatic)
SS 6.0-litre V8 four-door sedan: $41,990 (manual), $44,190 (automatic)
SS-V 6.0-litre V8 four-door sedan: $45,490 (manual), $47,690 (automatic)
SS-V Redline 6.0-litre V8 four-door sedan: $51,490 (manual), $53,690 (automatic)
Calais 3.6-litre V6 four-door sedan: $39,990 (automatic)
Calais V 3.6-litre V6 four-door sedan: $46,990 (automatic)
Calais V 6.0-litre V8 four-door sedan: $52,990 (automatic)Evoke Sportwagon 3.0-litre V6 five-door wagon: $36,990 (automatic)
SV6 Sportwagon 3.6-litre V6 five-door wagon: $40,190 (automatic)
SS Sportwagon 6.0-litre V8 five-door wagon: $46,190 (automatic)
SS-V Sportwagon 6.0-litre V8 five-door wagon: $49,690 (automatic)
SS-V Redline Sportwagon 6.0-litre V8 five-door wagon: $55,690 (automatic)
Calais Sportwagon 3.6-litre V6 five-door wagon: $41,990 (automatic)
Calais V Sportwagon 3.6-litre V6 five-door wagon: $48,990 (automatic)
Calais V Sportwagon 6.0-litre V8 five-door wagon: $54,990 (automatic)Caprice 3.6-litre LPG V6 four-door sedan: $54,490 (automatic)
Caprice V Series 6.0-litre V8 four-door sedan: $59,990 (automatic)
Edited by LXSS350, 10 December 2013 - 02:37 PM.
#98
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Posted 10 December 2013 - 02:44 PM
Maybe the New Torana might of been a good idea, fit all Donks 4Cyl and V6 and V8, Smaller in size, a nameplate that Aussie's Love, instead of the Dore's, as the Dore has had a good run from 1978 to now, maybe that Pink New Torana in 2004 was a good idea now.
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#99
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Posted 10 December 2013 - 02:55 PM
Re sizing, a look at the dimensions proves Commodores haven't gotten that much bigger between models (but considerably over 30 years? nah), the newer styling makes them look more bloated.
Sedan Model Width Length
VF 1898 4966
VE 1899* 4903
VT 1842 4884
VS 1794 4861
VL 1722 4766
VK 1722 4714
VB 1722 4705
*? 1mm wider?
So they've gotten nearly 20cm wider and 30cm longer, i'd call that stuff all when you think about it.
Edited by SRV, 10 December 2013 - 02:56 PM.
#100
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Posted 10 December 2013 - 03:41 PM
Its definitely physically bigger you notice it from the drivers seat and in parking in tight spots. Not to mention parked next to say a vk dunny. Its also weight related. Now I have jumped from a vf gts to the latest corolla and its a bit of a culture shock in just how physically big a difference, yet in saying that its surprising how much room is in the toy car (corolla).
Neither are my cuppa but I would choose the zippy corolla for the city and I can see why the majority of the market is avoiding large sedans. Although for the life of me the whole 4x4 thing just for city driving has to be related to a belief they are much safer with better visibility (high).
I understand towing and offroading but just for driving around the city and parking the whole 4x4 demand is the anti whale that are whales but still are increasing in demand (volume).
World wide market not just oz is just not into big sedans they are a niche and sales for a decade + have been stagnant at best but mostly rapidly declining.
Might have to move Holden to Nz they must still have electricity over there? Give them something to do rather than molesting their sheepskin rugs and chasing sheep in their brand new gumboots!
Edited by LXSS350, 10 December 2013 - 03:44 PM.
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